COMMENTS ON AGS,AIQ, MEL & NCC.

AGS – Pleased to see the capital return be announced that I was forecasting. I wrote about AGS not long ago here.

https://stevegreeny.com/2016/09/01/ags-aik/

As I write I am a little surprised the stock is not higher, they opened at 4.7 cents but it seems a seller is happy to exit. I suppose it gives a chance for someone who hasn’t looked at it to get some perhaps at 4.4 cents, or potentially top up existing holdings.

 

AIQ – I had previously flagged how I would be voting for the change in RE and pleasingly this vote has succeeded. I am hopeful this paves the way for them to act more in the interests of unit holders and be more open to a transaction where an acquirer can pay a decent premium to the current share price for the benefits of the remaining assets and the shell company.

MEL – Another vote I was very pleased about was that in favour of the MEL capital return. The newest largest shareholder on the scene wanted to stop the capital return. So there was a risk they may get their way and the vote was tight. Now my risk here will be partly reduced by getting this capital back. Also happy to stay in here for the remainder as the new shareholder has shown their hand they are fairly keen. So with the reduced market cap post capital return, and them already paying 7.5 cents for a stake there must be some sort of chance they may bid for the entire company well north of the current share price at 6.2 cents.

NCC – I thought I would highlight once again the inefficiencies and opportunities in the small, less liquid LIC space at times. I purchased NCC on September 2 as the share market was far closer to its recent highs at $1.18. It is not an exact science but I would say the NTA yesterday would have been lower since then, the overall market is certainly a bit weaker and I can’t really see any gainers in the NCC portfolio that would offset this. Yet on large volume on Wednesday many were buying the shares already at $1.30, 10% higher! Part of this may be them releasing their NTA report for August 31 which showed they gained over 6% for the month against a weak overall market. I had written back on September 2 that it was evident they had a very strong month in the order of that magnitude yet it is only once they release the official monthly report, even though it is stale data by 2 weeks, that the market seems to catch on. A bigger factor though seems to be some sort of recommendation from a tip sheet, news source or financial planner but I am yet to find out exactly. One morning there were about 50 different buy orders sitting at $1.25. Hopefully they don’t pay too much for this service. For free one could have read here to pay $1.18 at a time when the NTA was higher, rather than $1.25 (or $1.30 for those chasing it higher) when the NTA had probably weakened if anything.

 

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